The basic end of the bull market bear market has not been established

 Left: old left-old, concerned about the transaction time! Viewers Hello everybody! New week began, many people think of today's market always have to adjust! Did not expect the end, top to go along the entire capital the strength of this market from the capital, looking to play down the money, then money and Tuishang Qu. K line shape from the point of view, notably the entity, and not cross the heart, and there's one at wore Yang Xian, but the volume does not seem to put out before more than 800 million Shanghai, Shenzhen City before more than 700 million, the amount of such a view seems to be enough. But if we decrease the whole situation up what the industry today, how? today, five days a summary of the point of view if , I will tell you five days all of the industry for inflation, which did not rise to. up 10% of the best pesticides, non-ferrous mining 10%, 9.4% air transport, non-ferrous metals 9.15%, 8.94% non-metallic products, behind There are eight long list of nine ah ah, ah eight nine. We look up the poor who, behind the last two, the insurance and finance, where you say to the poor, rose 2.1% in five days, the insurance, banking days rose 3.2%, up two three are routed to the back up, and can be imagined. Today there is the concept very interesting, I told everyone to share exchange. regional economic blocks we all know, the regional economic situation in provinces and cities, I put the row in a row, you know who is up for best thing? Tianjin, five days rose 8.9%, followed by 8.4% in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, the third 8.3%, which rose three percentage is five days Several of the eight, the back nine are six ah, ah, keep pace with both the central and western areas, the layout of the economy are reflected. It seems that our capital markets are reflecting the state of the economy completely as before , we look at the next in such a situation to our guests how to analyze the market. Here you introduce the guests, the first invitation is the value of the investment professionals hairiness. hairiness, hello!
】 【hairiness: left teachers, Hello!
】 【left Enron: We start with the feathers start to talk about today, what point of view, to see how the broader market?
【basic end of the bull market, bear market has not been determined hairiness】 【】
: I think Today, for the entire market, you can use two words to describe the present state, the first sentence is: the basic end of the bear market, down from the beginning to now about 26%, up to the time fell 26.6%, exceeding the standard 20 bear market % bear market determine the basic state, the second sentence is: The bull market has not been determined.
】 【left Enron: But I think, here today, you say, and slowly slowly you a little taste of the people Why? estimated that the value you are almost always nearly a month, the value of the expression, and ownership to be up, is feeling good.
】 【hairiness: Yes, the situation today does, a little bit changes in ownership at the bottom to be up early today, there is little change in an indicator, what indicators do we wait to say. first look at the valuation of the market situation, we asked the director of the Beijing ; transferred out of the picture to see. We can see the whole time at the lowest price-earnings ratio is 16 times, it is now 17.8 times, that the average price-earnings ratio in the rapidly within a week a little more time up close to the bottom of 998 and 1664, was that close to the bottom of the history, it has rebounded 10%.
undervalued fixed
we look at the blue line with the yellow line, yellow line a little bit blind, in fact, the comparison is still rising fast, up 10%, the value has increased by 10% of all companies belonging to broad based. last week we talk about a is a cyclical industry, this week is also good cyclical industry, air transport is a cyclical industry and restore the good, and now how to get the next step? is a particularly critical issue, we are also more concerned about the market, public offerings and private institutions institutions, especially private sector behavior, their behavior is often a little ahead of the market have a certain direction.
】 【left Enron: hot money, ah, come and go quickly.
】 【hairiness: We put it another name, do not have to be called hot money, call it sensitive to the value of the discoverer, they are what kind of a performance? invited the director of the Beijing transferred out of the second picture, market peak, the previous peak was larger in May, ahead of 4 months, and then forward that in February, higher each time after the peak, how many there will be some adjustments to the market, that in the present case, although index rising part of the raised funds in the continued jiacang, but private equity's sentiment there is a clear differentiation from our private feelings for the history of previous statistical point of view, the probability is 80% change when the private mood after a period of time after which the market will have a direction, a reverse of the adjustment.
】 【left Enron: But this is only short-term it will not be a h
】 【hairiness: Two weeks, of which a mood, so we present the current market, still does not exist from the over-valuation of the case, only a repair problem, but the trading sentiment from the market point of view, private emotions may give us some implied.
】 【left Enron: Everyone has his own brilliant idea, I have just talked about the value of investment experts hairiness, he has a lot of his own assessment of the system, he would seize the value of, to seize his valuation, then seize the entire market sentiment, emotion also points several large institutions and big capital, public offerings, as well as retail investors, as well as private, try to figure out the market trend from inside, but this is a reference, in the end whether the Right end or market to test. Here we have first.
grasp the shock turned 【】
based company】 【left Enron: The old left-back, continue to focus on trading hours! Here we further explored. hairiness here today about values, he is quite early that the market began to climb, and should not fall any further, the value has been found, and so, after a month's time, the market is indeed started. Now we come back to subdivision, from the stocks can be seen inside, indeed it has a main line it up, and this thread is based on the valuation of its value in accordance with its terms, can not see, hairiness, please!
】 【hairiness : In fact, last week we talked about a because the valuation is underestimated, serious depression, so the market is always nothing more than the main line of the only two, one is the growth, the second is the valuation of the deviation.
】 【left Enron: the value of two points by embodied in the value of a future, a value is now undervalued.
】 【hairiness: Speaking of the future, when in fact very simple, we had people come in market terms, the company has no value, more than 100 times earnings, the profits of a few cents, why up so well? In fact, the internal factors which are now the high price-earnings ratio, or the profit is not good now does not mean a bad future earning capacity, so growth we are now doing time, be sure to see it have some certainty what the future rather than a simple theme, simple story, to speculation.
】 【left Enron: as we've said before Lucky film, it is also the loss of the right ST.
】 【hairiness: We have made a total market statistics, not on a stock go up, that this thing is a regular. Some companies are now surface, high price-earnings ratio, however, because the future has some certainty what its future earnings will come down, on average, more than 100 times earnings now, you say it worth it? Now if you want a view, a serious overestimate , but, if the future is expected to be able to 40 times, this is a. the second surface of the drop is not to say that, but on the company's business to find some clues. For example, we often talked about The gross margin, we found that the company's gross profit margin on the rise, that the profitability of the company's products is increasing, there is a pre-payment we have talked about, and if the company found its products in short supply, people need to give it my money before you can get the goods, then that is its product and the future situation will turn for the better, so, quite simply, is a bad company, if you can find a clear signal, it can change the future Well, we'll define it as a turn-based companies, these types of companies often rise turned up very fast. we are in August last year, when peaked, peaked on August 4, according to which we have just Selection of more than 100 times the overall market price-earnings ratio of the company, but after a year they can drop 40 times, then it's gross margin increased trade also increased significantly in advance, so that looking down, then the company last year, a total of 8 companies, until now the market fell by 26%, this average increase of 8 companies of 10%, so that companies can offset this growth it is now the valuation is high risk, we now also have such some of the company, we look at a company, we invite the director to a company in Beijing, power equipment, a company improve its gross profit margin is strong, and this picture we can see, the company's performance does not see it now good but a change in the future a good sign, gross margin increased substantially, pre-payment is also risen sharply, and it is in the industry is the power equipment industry, but also a great amount of future investment in smart grid market, so this company is now the high gross margin I think there is nothing to worry about, as it offset the future growth performance of the risk of it now.
power equipment business: steady improvement in gross margin
you look at it is so gross margins increased steadily over the years, a quarter very bad in the first quarter of the income is very low, low is the reason, let's please continue to be directed to tune out the following Photo, a quarter of the profit figure by the billing cycle to tune out, it is the first quarter of each year very low, which is a characteristic of the power industry in each quarter of the balance sheet are 2-3, 4-quarter balance sheet more. This picture is profit by billing cycles, which is a regular. so we have no to worry about this company.
first quarter profit by billing cycles
third piece of graph we also asked the director of Beijing transferred out of view, but also a substantial increase in advances from customers, which means it now has a large number of orders in hand, have been too worried.
substantial increase in receipts in advance
we marked out the red arrow, that is, it advances from customers, which we can see that it advances from the first quarter more than its history, all the high points, indicating that its products have appeared in short supply in the state.
】 【left Enron: what has not sold, the money has been collected, and it is clearly a great benefit to the company , this is no problem. In fact, we see a regular national units, including national statistical offices, including those regulators, it is in determining the market to determine when the company is good or bad, often with a gross profit margin, it will be with us hairiness further issues to talk about gross margin, in the end what is the gross margin, the interest rate we all know, gross profit margin mean? will be we can talk.
【companies with higher margins with strong defensive】 < br> On Lung】 【Left: hairiness we talk, we said that gross margin question, for everyone to spread about the basic concepts of value investing, margin!
】 【hairiness: in fact we think about, low gross interest rates, the company does not make money What is the situation? products not sell too much competition, the cost is too high, or low level of technology, there is no added value, or low trade barriers, we are capable, these points is the formation of profitability of a business is not strong reason. we're talking about a number of new businesses, we see a very important point, I can give you a basic data, many of our investors for the A shares, all of China's industrial enterprises What is the basic average gross margin, not the concept, is generally 20% -25%, 5 dollars a dollar and 4 dollar a dollar, this is normal for traditional enterprises. But some industry is very low construction industry, is very low, we just saw the photograph of figure, it is to do smart meters, smart grid where the bad, the remote will be able to check it out, this is a high-tech equipment, so it's gross margin comparison high, nearly 50%, so it is twice as high than the more traditional industries, so, if it is an emerging industry, and its gross profit margin of only 10%, 20%, and gross margins also continued to decline, can you say It is a new industry do?
】 【left Enron: If, as I just said to you, including your description of the gross margin for a long time, I got the experience, the gross margin is your input and output The ratio is what you mean! just do not add any tax, subsidy policy, that is, how much you are in the end, output the number, the ratio of the number sold, gross margin is that it.
】 【hairiness: in fact, We are the A-share market made a statistics, we now have more than 1,900 companies, more than 30% of companies with more than 400.
】 【left Enron: Oh, that the good thing!
【hairiness 】: Not many, 400 is only about 1 / 4, less than 1 / 4 level, such a company, last year, my statistics down, and he is shocked, last year 400 companies from Last July high, and even today, more than 400 companies operate there is no way, you buy the 400 companies rose an average 9.2% a year now, the market is down 22%, so you can see, Buffett said, I prefer high-margin company, it can be seen, high-margin anti-risk ability of the company, once the market is not good, it can sell products out of the market it may be a good increase, so this is the high-margin company.
】 【left Enron: Of course, you keep up with a dealer, a dealer can put it Tuishang Qu, was found a short time you 2-3 days make full, but you very afraid Yeah, if the Commission investigation, the shutting down of the how the case, making it shock you out Xipan panic, if you really dive down to the basic law of value system, which you There is a big investment to help, you really buy a high-margin company, you are not afraid of no matter how the market turmoil, it must make money.